Regular readers of this 'blog (you both know who you are) may have noticed that I spend a fair amount of time thinking about Life, the Universe, and Everything. Specifically: where is all the Life in the Universe, and why is Everything so silent? Yes, it's time for yet another look at our old friend the Fermi Paradox.
I've speculated that humans may be the first technological civilization in the Milky Way, or at least one of the first. And it occurs to me there's a fairly convincing logical proof. I'm proposing this idea seriously, so I'd appreciate it if anyone can find a logical hole in my argument.
Consider the principle of Mediocrity: the idea that we, as a species, are ordinary. That would seem to contradict the notion that humans are the first technological civilization. Being first isn't very mediocre, is it?
But look at it another way: if you were to be randomly plopped down in one of the Milky Way's technological civilizations, which would you be most likely to be in? In other words, which one would you have the highest probability of being born into? It seems to me that there would be a huge probability skew in favor of the firstborn and longest-lived civilizations.
If there's only one civilization, then your chance of being born into it are 100 percent. If there are two, then your chance is 50 percent for each. Since I, and both of you reading this 'blog, are humans, it seems to support the idea that maybe humans are a significant fraction of intelligent life in the Galaxy right now. By analogy, if there were no language barriers and everyone on Earth could read my 'blog, the odds would be good that you, my readers, are either Chinese, Indian, or American, as those are the most populous nations on Earth.
I realize there's a selection bias at work: the only people who can read this 'blog post are humans, therefore of course we're all humans. But I think my basic concept is sound: humans exist, which suggests that there's a high probability of humans existing, therefore humans make up a big percentage of technological civilizations.
One can also look at it across time. If there are multiple civilizations throughout the history of the Milky Way galaxy, which one are you most likely to be born into? Obviously the one which is longest-lived. Again, it has the biggest "target" in time for you to be born into. Humans exist, therefore humans existing is a common phenomenon, therefore humans will exist for a long time.
Is there something I'm missing here? Or are we alone in the Galaxy?
Comments
You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.