We're all following the progress of the war in Ukraine, bouncing around between hope, fear, and utter bafflement. I'd like to take a step back and think about what the results of this conflict are likely to be. I see five paths, and only one of them is not terrible.
Russian Victory: supposing the Russians solve their logistical and command problems, unleash the full strength of their air force, call in more troops, and grind down the Ukrainians by sheer weight of force. Possibly even nuclear force. What then? Russia remains a pariah state, isolated from the global economy and global society. Ukraine will be a bloody open wound for a generation, drawing in a steady flow of Russian troops and sending home body bags, while Putin's security services revert to the worst Soviet methods on a large scale. Paranoid but protected by its nuclear arsenal, Russia would export terror and subversion to its neighbors. We get a new Cold War, as tense and vicious as the old one.
Ukraine Buys Peace: this, to me, is the most likely outcome but it's not a good one. We have a negotiated settlement which gives Russia control of a big chunk of eastern Ukraine, and possibly puts limits on Ukraine's defenses in the future. Ukraine survives but pays a heavy cost, and Vladimir Putin can claim victory and continue in power. What result? Most of the economic sanctions on Russia remain in place, though there will be more room for countries like China to find loopholes to exploit. Again, we get a reborn Cold War, and Russia continues its campaigns of corruption and subversion in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Ukraine and Putin Hold: the Ukrainians throw back the Russian invasion and Putin decides to cut his losses and accept some fig-leaf settlement. Putin proves better at murdering potential rivals than at planning foreign invasions, and remains in power despite the obvious military defeat. Again, this leads to a revived Cold War, Russia as a pariah, and more low-level meddling. The good news is that Ukraine becomes the bastion of Europe, integrated into the European Union and NATO. The bad news is that we go back to 1980s levels of military expenditure and diplomatic infighting.
Putin Falls: the Russian Duma (we hope) or some ambitious general (we fear) take direct steps to remove Putin from power and call the troops home. Everything gets blamed on the late Vlad, Russia's new leadership promise to behave, and the sanctions get relaxed in stages. Essentially a repeat of the Yeltsin years. This is probably the best possible outcome, so my sincerest best wishes to any Russian leaders reading this. Go for it, dude!
Russia Falls: whoever decides to remove Putin sets off a cascade of coups and power grabs by generals, regional governors, and organized crime bosses. This is basically the situation we all felt lucky to avoid in 1991 — a nuclear-armed superpower descending into chaos. The best result of this scenario is a nasty counter-insurgency campaign by international forces to keep order and secure the missile silos, a perpetually unstable Russian government, lots of small-time strongmen, and China quietly annexes everything east of the Urals. The worst result is terrorists and rogue states getting and using Russian nuclear weapons.
If anyone can come up with another optimistic scenario, I'd love to hear it.
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