One of the most baffling things about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, to Westerners, is that it seems impossible to succeed. If the Russian army gets badly mauled and driven out, Putin gets forced from power and probably shot in the back of the head. If the Russians somehow manage to occupy the entire vast expanse of Ukraine, then they spend the next decade or more dealing with an insurgency that would make 1980s Afghanistan look like Disney World. And either way the economic sanctions have completely wrecked the Russian economy.
But . . . that's looking at things from our perspective. From a Western, democratic, free-market, classical liberal perspective. Vladimir Putin is none of those things. He grew up, thrived, and prospered in the Communist Soviet Union. When he took power he tried to combine old Soviet elements with even older traditional Russian nationalist strains. He is not, and has never been a "Westernizer."
Which means that, from his point of view, Russia as a pariah state, a hermit empire, disconnected from the global economy and isolated from world society . . . is a good thing. Far from being a deterrent to his aggression in Ukraine, it's a fringe benefit.
This is a man who grew up immersed in Soviet teachings about "capitalist decadence" as well as the older Russian suspicion of merchants and outsiders. Like another European political figure, he probably sees himself battling against "international money and finance conspirators." If he can grab Ukraine, eliminate anyone who opposes him, and sweep away three decades of "Western capitalist corruption," leaving Russia poorer, meaner — but purified and authentically Russian once more, he will call it a victory.
We'll see if other Russians agree with him.
I can’t speak for the rest of the world, Jim, but I’m grateful for your insights. I think your read on Putin is excellent. The catch is that the plutocrats who have at least tacitly supported him, and the generals on whom he depends, will be none too pleased to watch their billions and their armies gobbled up by Western banks and Ukrainian courage and resolve.
The Ukrainians are saying they’ve killed 9000 Russian soldiers. That’s almost certainly an overestimate, but it might become accurate in 48 hours or so. That represents a loss rate of roughly 200 times what they experienced in Afghanistan: 15K in 10 years versus 9K in 10 days. The first is 1.5K per annum, the second is 9K in let’s say 1/25 of a year, 240K p.a. I think that is unsustainable. And if the oligarchs’ fortunes are not merely frozen but seized, I think Gospodin Putin may receive the intracranial nine grams of lead transfusion sooner rather than later. A man may hope.
Posted by: David Derbes | 03/03/2022 at 09:20 AM