Just The Caffeine Talking

How Risky Is Your Gathering?

In a time of alarm over virus transmission, how dangerous is a gathering of people? This post from Tyler Cowan's blog features a risk assessment calculator, giving the probability that someone at an event is carrying the Wuhan Coronavirus, based on the size of the event and the number of carriers nationwide.

It's reassuring to see that gatherings of up to about 30 people are pretty safe even if there are 100,000 carriers nationwide. This particular calculator is scaled for the USA, with 300 million people. For smaller countries, I think it would scale by reducing the number of carriers for a given risk level in proportion to population. I think.

Prince Prospero could have used this calculator when making up the guest list for his famous Masque. He invited a thousand other nobles to his event, but at the time the number of Red Death carriers in his kingdom was extremely high relative to population, so naturally the party guests got infected. If he had limited himself to a small dinner-party he might have made it through the epidemic alive.

Hamiltonian Musings

A couple of weeks ago the Crack Team launched an expedition to the distant isle of Manhattan. We toured the museum ship Intrepid, saw an exhibit of clockwork automata at the Metropolitan Museum of Art, ate some fancy food, and saw a matinee of Lin-Manuel Miranda's famous hip-hop musical Hamilton.

Quick summary: it's good. Just like the soundtrack album.

And that's not just damning with faint praise. It is a great musical experience. But the staging of the show was overwhelmed by the songs. It's not a grand spectacle. The dancing is skillful but with a fairly small stage the performers mostly have to strike poses on a rotating floor section because there isn't room to move.

To me it would be as great an experience if the performers were just standing on stage in evening dress in front of the orchestra, with the chorus on risers in the back. And I find myself wondering, why not? A purely static musical performance can be profoundly moving. 

I have heard that a film version is in the works, and I hope the director isn't content to plant a camera in front of the stage. The music would work just as well against a realistic period background. The dancers could really cut loose. Freed from the theater stage, the spectacle of the show could finally match the music.

I was very impressed by the cleverness of the lyrics and the structure of the piece. At some point Mr. Miranda must have sat down with a notepad and jotted down all the words and phrases he could think of connected with a pistol duel, and then tried to build songs around them. I suspect his hard drive contains discarded drafts of a number about "fire," perhaps one about "paces," or "triggers," or "the ground."

I was also impressed by a bit of casting: all the performers who play Hamilton's friends in the first act are his adversaries in the second, which heightens the depiction of a man becoming more and more isolated as his ambition cuts him off from everyone around him. The exception is the man who plays John Laurens and Phillip Hamilton; in both acts he's the Guy Who Dies. I do wonder if in some earlier draft Laurens had a spotlight number in the first half to match Phillip's in the second.

(No doubt there will be a book or three written about this show which might confirm or explode my speculations. Until then, I'm free to guess.)

Jim says check it out.

Very Sad News

Freeman Dyson has died. He had a long, productive, and apparently happy life, so it's not really sad news for him. It's sad news for the rest of the species, which will have to get by without one of the modern era's foremost intellects.

He was one of those scientists who are better science fiction writers than anyone in SFWA. Back in 1960 he invented the concept of the "Dyson Sphere" — a shell of artificial habitats and solar collectors completely harvesting the energy of a star. In the 1980s he tossed off the idea now called a "Dyson tree," a bioengineered space habitat rooted on a comet, spreading vast leaves to catch the light of the distant Sun. Both notions have become staples of SF, but Dyson got there first.

I'm afraid we shall not see his like again.

Signs of the Times

Things I've seen in the past few days:

• Disposable plastic gloves now get a listing on the supermarket aisle sign.

• Big displays of disinfectant wipes at the front of multiple stores.

• No dust masks at any hardware store.

What have you noticed?

On the Air!

If you have enjoyed reading my posts about The Initiate here on my 'blog, you can venture into another medium! Listen to an interview with me about the book on the Baen Free Radio Hour podcast, linked here. 

Initiate Events This Weekend!

This weekend my promotion tour for my new novel The Initiate comes to its exciting finish with a double-header of bookstore events.

This evening at 6:00 p.m. I'll be reading from the book and signing copies at the Lovecraft Arts & Sciences shop in Providence, Rhode Island. It's in the historic Providence Arcade, at 65 Weybosset Street. Rhode Island writers Catherine Grant and Daphne Host will be reading from their works as well, so it should be a very entertaining evening.

On Sunday, February 23, I'll be appearing at Flights of Fantasy Books and Games in Albany, New York. That event starts at 3:00 p.m., at 381 Sand Creek Road in Albany. All are welcome!

Initiate Reading in Providence!

This coming Friday, February 21, the Lovecraft Arts & Sciences shop will host an evening of fantasy and horror. I'll be reading from my new contemporary noir fantasy novel The Initiate, along with special guests Catherine Grant and Daphne Gem Host. The store is in the historic Providence Arcade, at 65 Weybosset Street, and the event starts at 6:00 p.m. You can also take the opportunity to shop at one of the country's best Lovecraft/Horror/Occult bookshops!

 

Meta-Political Post

No, I'm not talking about politics. I'm talking about talking about politics.

I recently read a couple of interesting essays. The first, by economist Robin Hanson, is "Respectable Rants" — his standards for good political rhetoric. Note that he's not trying to limit politicians to a Rain Man style recitation of facts, nor is he urging that everyone only say nice things about each other. But he is asking, a bit wistfully, that political discourse treat the listeners — which is to say, the voters — like adults.

The second, "My Former Life as a Radical," by an academic named Gerfried Ambrosch , describes the thought processes and belief structures of a political radical. In his case, he was a leftist radical, but people on the far right, religious extremists, and all types of "radicals" share many of the same habits of thought.

 

For a thrilling story about a rebel battling evil wizards, check out my new novel The Initiate, from Baen Books — at bookstores everywhere right now!

 

 

The Future of Star Wars — And An Initiate Reading!

Andrew Liptak at Tor.com asked some science fiction writers what they'd like to see from future Star Wars projects. You can read my answer here.

And if you're in or near Worcester, Mass., at 6:00 p.m. tomorrow, swing by Annie's Book Stop of Worcester, at 65 James Street on the west side of Worcester (take exit 10 off the Mass Pike and go north on Oxford St.), to hear a reading from my new book The Initiate and get a signed copy! I'll be giving away a bonus gift to one randomly-chosen attendee, so don't miss out!

The Initiate Arrives Today!

The wait is over, the stars are right, and all the necessary rituals are complete. My new modern-day noir fantasy novel The Initiate is officially released today. Pick up a copy in your local bookstore, or buy on line. Get Initiated!

And if you're going to be in the neighborhood of Easthampton, Massachusetts this coming Thursday, stop by the launch party! It's at Book Moon bookstore, 86 Cottage St., from 6:30-8:00 p.m. on February 6. Features readings by myself and Hugo award winner Suzanne Palmer, plus refreshments and more! The Apkallu command you to attend!